Changes to Discord

[Novean-32184]

 

So besides this announcement ending up on page THREE in the announcement section due to the insane amount of pinned announcements (who's managing the forums these days, it seems NQ-Naerais has left us pretty much).

 

Best part, the Discord link on the main web site front page is expired (quality content management again)

 

From the looks of it, all references to "beta" being removed, NQ is starting to prepare for "Release".. Still on track for a "sink or swim" target there and will you push the update following "Demeter" as release? As NQ-Sesch, who seems to be pretty much in charge these days, said it would be a "few more months for beta" in the Q&A with Pann and Deckard, a "release" around the holidays this year would not surprise me.

Not that it will make much of a difference, but there it is..

 

[blundertwink]

Let's remember that NQ is now led by an investor. He doesn't care if the game is "done" -- we all knew that NQ would need to spin up the marketing machine eventually because money isn't infinite (especially after 7+ years).

 

If they use the same adverts that "worked so well" to get people into open beta, they will be screwed IMO...

 

They hope the last year of changes will improve their churn rate and ROI enough that the game will stabilize...but if they use another crop of adverts that creates unrealistic expectations, they'll see a churn rate very similar to open beta.

 

Some genius in their marketing department will insist that they use the same adverts because "They worked great and won't cost us anything extra! The problem was just retention, which our product improvements will surely fix..." 

 

Uh, no...and sadly they won't even see the issue until a few months later when churn really kicks in. 

 

I know NQ doesn't read this, but if there was one real warning I'd give them....it is to be extremely careful about how they frame expectations with their advertisements -- getting people into the game doesn't matter nearly as much as churn in a sub-based model. 

[Physics]

If NQ released any earlier than mid-22 I don’t think it would survive. Would be the final blow tbh. 

[Novean-32184]

 

As NQ does not say anything about where they actually are as a company, we can only go on what we see happen and do  know.

 

Here's my POV;

NQ is likely out of money, there is no indication whatsoever that they have received additional funding from the investors or have found new investors. making such announcement would boast the reputation and viability of the company, keeping that quiet woudl be counter productive. So not seeing a single announcement on the financial situation of the company since the one back in June 2019 is really far more telling that the fanboys and probably NQ themselves would like to deny it is.

 

The changes seen currently indicate that severe compromises and changes were required to even stay alive. It is IMO not unlikely that there will be a "Hail Mary"  release coming sooner than expected and certainly not with a game that is complete or ready. The excuse will be that "an MMO is never done". That the release is with a feeature set not even close to what was pretty much committed to earlier will be ignored, as will the fact several game mechanics that would have been in before "release" will now be pushed out or have been pulled entirely.

 

NQ runs two offices in very expensive locations, they employ maybe 80 people at this point, many of which are "senior" and/or mangement and will need to be paid a matching salary. Many of the bottom end has already been eliminated (like outsourced support) or are being cut (server operations), all we see and really all we hear is about actions designed to cut cost.

NQ will go for the hope that a release will bring enough new subscribers to survive. I personally do not think they will be able to make that happen as basic and modest estimations would come out at a monthly operating cost of maybe (a very optimistic) 250-300K. That's 45-50K paying subs every month and they'll need to get more to continue development. It's a simple matter of money, will they be able to secure enough revenue to keep going? I expect the answer, unfortunately, is no.

As a compare, CCP has about 320K unique paying and active accounts, their revenue from subs and store is roughly 5M a month. NQ only has one possible revenue stream right now and that's subscriptions. Knowing the massive exodus of players over the last year and seeing the number of claimed tiles on Sanctuary (currently 41K), even if you take into account a good many will not have claimed one for their alts, the paying playerbase is just not there to sustain the running cost for NQ. 

 

 

I'd love to see NQ prove me wrong, but the numbers just do not add up. And that is a real shame as the promise and potential of Dual Universe remains immense if it was in the hands of a company with a sustainable revenue stream.

 

[Sabretooth]

Im even making lots of videos and pics of my ships and builds, because im afraid I will never see my builds again because of game-stop! And I am sure that, when it will happen, it will happen out of the blue.

[blundertwink]

7 minutes ago, Sabretooth said:

Im even making lots of videos and pics of my ships and builds, because im afraid I will never see my builds again because of game-stop! And I am sure that, when it will happen, it will happen out of the blue.

 

I get that, but don't panic just yet. It won't happen until at least a couple months after "release", once they are sure that the churning player counts are both unrecoverable and unsustainable. 

 

The truth is, we have no idea how Demeter and FTUE changes will impact ROI -- there's at least some chance it will make the game sustainable (revenue-positive) or show enough growth to justify more investment. 

[Novean-32184]

There is always a chance, yes.

 

IMO one of the bigger mistakes was the $7 subscription. In poker it is often the case that people overbet to get information where betting/risking less would have yielded the same result. Here I believe the opposite is actually true. NQ may have thought that going with $7/month would bring in more players while in fact, the offset would not be as massive and it's likely they would have seen the same numbers going with $10 which would in turn have given them nearly 45% more revenue on subsciptions. not having the shop ready shortly after start of "beta" and only now starting their referral program is another missed opportunity.

It is IMO not unreasonable to assume that even at $15 the revenue would have been higher overall as that was the amount they pretty much advertised up to the moment they announced the $7 price which is really silly low. It seems a typical choice made by someone who really does/did not understand the scaling of those numbers. Many of the pre "beta" backers have left by now so the fact they pretty much cut the value of the backer pledges by 50% due to this decision became irrelevant. I have well over 4 years of free playtime in DAC coming so yeah, I fulle expect my available DAC will outlast the game.  

 

So yes, there is a chance, but at $7 I really do not see how NQ will be able to generate enough money to sustain their operating cost as they will not be able to attract enough of a playerbase to get there, let alone continue their development. They are already on a very small staffing base and there is no indication that any of the positions that really only cost money are being reconsidered. A quick scan of the employee list on LinkedIN shows that the majority are in middle/high level and that is where the biggest expense is (in salaries).

The pandemic may actually have been a blessing for NQ as with people working from home and their "offices" being rented desks (and not owned office space) in both locations, the saving on that may well have kept them afloat for a bit longer. Not owning their own server infrastructure is also part of what is doing them in right now. At leeast, that is what I expect and take away from the comments to that effect during the two latest podcasts.

[Cabana]

4 hours ago, Jake Arver said:

NQ may have thought that going with $7/month would bring in more players

Actually its not 7 $ it is 21 $ to actively sub.  I believe nq should make a monthly sub . It is a must . Dont like the game dont sub . Like it and sub.

[Novean-32184]

That is semantics really. It's $7/month with a minimum of 3 months. A monthly sub at $7 would probably be too costly in fees which is another reason why it was a bad idea to set the subsciption this low.

 

The whole 3 month minimum is just another one of those weird choices NQ has made.. just opening up on $10-12 per month would have been fine. It woudl have also offered a possibility of making mult moth subs more attractive by offereing a bit more of a discount

 

$12 per month, 3 months $33, 6 months $60 and 12 months $99 would have been fine and might have seen quite a few yearly subs being taken.. It's all speculative obviously but from where I stand it would have been very possible. in fact if and when DU gets to release those number could still work.

 

[blundertwink]

They did a $21 minimum because they know their churn rate is high. 

 

Marketing is expensive. It isn't unreasonable to spend $10-15 (at least) per acquisition, especially in a competitive gaming space. Paying for ads is a huge part of making the product scale. 

 

If you only make $7-12 on a user...that's not a lot, especially if your spend is already ~$10. It's only a positive ROI if they barely play or you acquire them organically. 

 

Xsolla's fees are absurdly high (~5%) -- if there's one choice that makes no sense in their billing model, it's using this service. Even Stripe (which is notoriously expensive) is more like 2.9% -- and their API is almost effortless to implement, so it really doesn't make sense.

 

The 3 month sub isn't attractive to users IMO, but it does make sense with a high churn rate....better to make $21 vs. $7 when they'll only play a few days anyway and never resub. 

[Triopalite]

I think the 'game' is more or less dead.

It's sad, but there you go, just another game not finished properly.

Seems that is the gaming industry now.

[Novean-32184]

3 hours ago, ShippyLongstalking said:

Xsolla's fees are absurdly high (~5%) -- if there's one choice that makes no sense in their billing model, it's using this service.

 

XSolla is linked to one of their investors and I can only assume using them (and be bound to them) was part of the investment deal.

[blundertwink]

17 hours ago, Jake Arver said:

 

XSolla is linked to one of their investors and I can only assume using them (and be bound to them) was part of the investment deal.

 

I've heard this before, but couldn't find information on if this is actually true? Which investor? 

 

This would make sense if they gave NQ a special rate, otherwise that's a real shit condition of investment, surrendering 5% of all revenue to a third party forever, especially if it was one of their smaller investors. 

 

If that's the case, JC is even worse at being a CEO than I thought.  

[Sabretooth]

Nice going rich boys, for me 7 bucks a month is a lot! 10 bucks a month and i will not play