blundertwink

I do love that Aphelia doesn't care if you murder each other or become a pirate (this after saving a tiny slice of humans from a world-ending tragedy) -- but players making markets outside its supervision? That it cannot allow. Yeah, this is the last major update before launch. They've said that there will be smaller updates before release, but IMO those will be focused on balance and bugs. They'd be a bit dumb to slap new features in before release without leaving room for several patches focused on bug fixes and polish. They say it'll keep getting updates post-release, but they still don't seem to understand how MMOs work or the expectations they set with adverts and a monthly sub. People will not patiently wait around forever...they should know this based on how the public beta launch worked.

To be honest, the very idea that NQ will be able to balance PvP is a bit hilarious to me. We're coming close to release and this isn't something they have much experience with. Over the last 8 years, relatively little time has been spent with PvP's design. Even PvP-only arena games struggle to find balance... This is an open world, MMO game where not all ships are specialized in combat...that's already near impossible to balance because combat isn't guaranteed (or likely) to be symmetrical. Reality is that people will get mad if they perceive that combat isn't fair (right or wrong), and the nature of PvP in this game makes it rarely fair. There's a good reason open-world PvP MMOs are rare nowadays. Even if NQ had a lot of experience with PvP game design (they very clearly don't), it would still be very difficult to find balance in a game like this. Trying to do it now with some shotgun stat adjustments won't do the trick -- it's "too little, too late". PvP and combat mechanics are still rather crude...NQ needed a lot more time and experience to substantively improve PvP and combat.

There's no room for new features, so...not really any place at all. The game has received its last major update before release. Assuming they focus on polish and bugs, it'll be a long time before they have the resources to think about new features (not that they ever really listened to new feature requests, anyway).

The game simply cannot scale without player-run markets -- especially with the new FTUE giving players a hex and outpost so early. One of the core issues with FTUE is not solved -- that markets become further and further away over time, so the new player experience inevitably becomes worse over time. I don't get how the core market tech could be developed without this in mind...but my guess is that it simply wasn't designed to be this flexible (despite devblogs that make it clear that they did eventually want to roll this out?) Unfortunately, it's too late now -- NQ still isn't thinking at an "MMO scale" or considering how churn rate will degrade FTUE month after month. That aside, it'd be nice to actually have a reason to visit other players' creations and Aphelia's market clones are both boring and slightly immersion breaking...not to mention degrading the idea of a single-shard system because markets are functionally identical to instances. Especially as a new player it is hard to take "single shard" seriously when the first thing you need to do is figure out which market instance you're at if you want to play with a friend.

Really with the "it's beta" argument still...? Per NQ, this is the last major update before release...for a game that's been in development for over 8 years now (NQ was founded in Jan. of 2014). This is basically the 1.0 version of the game -- the few minor updates between now and release won't change all that much. Hopefully they improve UI/UX and mop up the laundry list of bugs left to kill, but even that will be a lot of work to squeeze in before release considering NQ's development cadence. At this point, the game's fate is sealed one way or the other. They don't have time to make major changes or additions and it'll either scale or it won't...but we can drop the "it's beta" line because beta is ending and this is the last big update before it ends.

I still think they underestimate the impact outposts will have on performance -- 20,000 new players is 20,000 new and permanent bases. Have they really and truly tested how things will scale on release should they attract tens of thousands of players...? That spawning that many outposts (likely in the few days after launch) won't impact performance too badly? That new players will be able to get to a market in a reasonable amount of time if they are the 10,000th player to join? With 20 new markets, only 1800 people will be able to claim hexes within 5 spaces. Only 6600 players will be within 10 spaces (assuming my shitty math is right...) I do agree that this FTUE has a lot of potential and does offer improvements...but I think it will make other issues worse. Issues that won't be apparent on the PTS. With even the best subscription products having 10-20% churn rates, I see this FTUE getting worse over time until they are forced to change the rules about structures being safe on Haven/Sanctuary...especially at the scale they need to sustain the game (a lot more than 10,000 new subs).

If DU is going to fail, it'll be because it's a poorly designed game with opaque and shallow mechanics that fails to retain enough players. The endless wipe vs. no wipe BS will be 99% irrelevant compared to the many other challenges facing DU. Very few new players will care one way or the other (if they even know about this whole drama, which is unlikely). That said...it's been plenty of time, NQ should have clarified this crap by now. As has been said before, they haven't done a good job practicing for release in terms of community management and communication. This sort of silence after a big and vague announcement has caused enough frustration even at this scale...it doesn't get easier post-release. They don't know how to build goodwill with their community and that's not a wise strategy for a subscription based game where you have to earn the player's trust monthly. I don't think NQ has ever truly understood what being a subscription game means. In terms of update cadence, messaging, and community engagement they just aren't ready...and that's on top of the game itself not being ready.

The most invested VC threw ~$11 million at a first-time developer who didn't have a clear, detailed design and had no experience in any part of the game dev industry at all. So...I wouldn't say that the VC made the best choices, here. Further, VCs often try to avoid early stage startups like NQ -- because the vast majority of startups fail (>75%). This was an extremely risky investment on paper since day 1 -- but that money has already been spent. It isn't like they can just shut the doors and take money back, anyway. The TLDR here is don't overestimate the ability of a VC to pick "winners" -- they know that the odds are against them and that most these investments fail. It's worthwhile because they only need a few big winners to earn absurd returns. For example, if DU did deliver on having millions of players like all their adverts claim, that $11 million would suddenly seem like a brilliant investment...but we all know it can't achieve that sort of scale.

Hard / impossible to estimate current subs (those MMO trackers aren't very accurate) but that seems within the likely ballpark. Consider that NQ has two offices (in expensive locations!) staffed with a lot of expensive engineering talent and has ~50+ employees overall. Supporting 50 employees at only $80k/year is already $300k/month. By comparison, the company I work for has fewer employees, no office, slim server costs, and only a handful of engineers -- and needs $900K+ in revenue still to make everyone happy and have some room to grow...that's with fairly good margins, too. So...50k or even 100k subs isn't a ton of revenue for a company of NQ's size. Plus, they need ~20% of their subscriber count in fresh subs every month until the end of time just to combat churn rates (assuming 80% retention, which is considered very good for a subscription product). Unfortunately, I don't see how they keep going post-release without closing one of their two offices and doing some layoffs, which truly sucks. Keep in mind that other niche MMOs with slim pops probably have far less overhead and have a more carefully considered monetization strategy like FTP + microtransactions --- you might not like these models, but they do work.

This seems rather counter-productive. The fact that every new player will get a hex (and an initial outpost) which isn't subject to abandonment will really be fun for performance and longevity. It seems like mixed messaging...NQ doesn't want to pay to support all our stuff, but they will pay for the thousands of new players that ditch the game after 10 minutes to have their outpost and hex forever. It's going to become cluttered with these very quickly. At least before (public 'beta' launch) we only had an ocean of ditched speeders...but this will be more resource-intensive. They'll have no choice but to change the rules with safe moons. The worst way to explain things to a player (especially in an MMO) is to throw text at them....and DU has a lot of random rules and mechanics that aren't obvious that don't even have text explanations as part of the tutorial. They need major UI/UX overhauls -- they need affordances that guide the player without relying on walls-o-text that only some will read. I think this is a slightly more effective FTUE than before, but not by enough to make a big difference...and they are certainly creating some issues with this that they'll have no choice but to fix later (although if release doesn't go well, I don't think there will be a 'later').

I know we've had some necro posts...but this is a bit overboard with the topic being 4 years old...it is a bit hilarious to see people talking about "launch" back in 2017 assuming that so much would change in the years to follow. Ah, back when the forum was optimistic about what this game would be.

Long ago when beta first dropped, I remember laughing a bit at how much the "single shard" concept was talked up. No instances, eh? Millions of players sharing the same space, eh? Well...as a new player, it felt like having a bunch of cloned markets was effectively the same thing as separate servers, only even more clunky (especially when trying to start the game with a friend) Cloned markets have the same purpose as instanced servers -- splitting player load. Yet it's more immersion breaking and these areas have far less character compared to other games... Now it's really too late to build lore or cultivate immersion...and in a game where there's not much else to do beyond creativity, this disconnect will be very unfortunate to the game's viability.

Haha, yeah -- more realistic physics will really save this game come release 😏 I think some would definitely prefer DU to be a single player simulator or a small-scale multiplayer game hosted on community servers. Arguably, it would make a lot more sense as such...because a game like this would actually benefit from varying rulesets or mods that appeal to the many niches of players that expect wildly different things from the game. Yet that's not how the game works -- it's an MMORPG, not a physics-based simulator. I'm not saying I think the speed change is a good game design choice, don't get me wrong, but fidelity to real life physics is far from a real issue...I think the very idea of slow-boating for hours is poor game design with as much engagement as a screensaver, so the speed changes to me are a symptom of far deeper design flaws. There's little about the game that's truly realistic -- games are always abstractions and a more realistic abstraction rarely makes a better game...especially when "realism" isn't a true design value for DU (though to be fair their design values aren't especially clear...)

Did anyone expect real lore...? I mean...the premise is that only a select few made it off earth which was utterly obliterated by a wandering neutron star (of all things). After a long, dangerous journey across the stars...they slap down a bunch of markets first thing and decide that the new society should be some sort of nightmare in governance where murder is perfectly legal in set zones and no real services are provided beyond an auction house...but taxes are enforced absolutely. This from a ship built by the UN as the last, best hope for humanity's survival. Sprinkle in some random aliens...and I think it's safe to say that the game has no lore or world-building. It's just generic sci-fi and kind of a waste of a potential narrative. This was supposed to be a game about us players building a civilization (or at least building something), but it's harder to be immersed or RP when the world-building is so generic and light. They could have put in a throwaway line about how the UN ship was built by corps that agreed to suspend their brutal rivalry only until the exact moment of planetfall...how they were so focused with greed, they didn't see their doom until it was too late....anything to lend the world more credibility and explain why players are supposed to be in conflict.

I don't really agree with this, but I do agree that any "rush" of new players from launch will mostly churn.... NQ's early beta launch press and the "press" since then has only scratched the surface of the wider demographics of gamers that might be interested in the game. We're talking about a pool of hundreds of millions of gamers that have played MMOs or are actively playing at least one now. The vast majority of those people don't read any gaming press...there's no reason to think they would all know about DU already. Even if NQ had unlimited marketing money, reaching every one of these users with ads would be difficult. If the population now is "the best NQ can do" and launch merely doubles it....then there's nothing to discuss because wipe or not, that's not even close to being enough subs to support this company.

I don't really understand NQ's strategy, overall. If I were NQ, I'd slap an initial price onto the game, like $29.99 or $19.99 -- many gamers won't sub for more than 1 month and it isn't realistic to think they'll earn players back with updates. The game is designed to discourage reconversions thanks to abandonment, and regardless, many new players won't be convinced that the game is quality enough to justify the sub. It's better to eek as much out of these players as you can while their interest is hooked...e.g. before they can actually play the game and see first-hand how the game as advertised doesn't match reality. Flashy adverts create an expectation of quality that DU won't likely deliver (unless Athena and the small updates after are truly surprising). Don't get me wrong, I don't think that's a great way to treat players...but it isn't like there's a viable path for long-term retention, so at the very least I'd think a short-term strategy to increase each new player's average value makes a lot of sense...especially since we know they will be running paid ads. More initial value means greater ROI. Relying on subs means more uncertainty and needing to wait at least 1-2 months before you can even know if your ROI is positive. It would be really funny if they want to avoid this because "an initial price will deter new players from trying the game" -- like, come on. Trying the game is what will convince them to churn, lol. My point is that even with a poor product at release there can be a path forward for NQ to continue to support operations in some form...but it means they need to have a realistic understanding of the quality of their product, put hubris aside, and implement a monetization strategy accordingly.

Eh, don't take this the wrong way but the current players aren't much of a source of marketing...they might be the only source of marketing today, but that is by design. Release will actually be a huge wave of marketing -- launching a new MMO tends to get press, and NQ has shown that they aren't shy about ads...they just don't want to run them now because the game isn't ready. Don't get me wrong, I don't think the game will be ready come release (regardless of wipe or not). To put it into context, with an average CPM of $2 for YouTube...20k views is worth about $40... I think NQ has given up on organic growth and think they can just buy their traffic/new players come release. I doubt that will be the case (at positive ROI), but public beta showed how many players the gaming press can drive when paired with paid adverts.

The challenge with release is that you only have one opportunity to ride the press and interest that comes with a new game hitting the market. Players won't care if "updates are coming" if their first impression of the product is poor -- especially with how the game is engineered to somewhat discourage reconversions via abandonment mechanics. It will be a similar pattern as Amazon's New World or DU's public beta launch...an explosion of interest as the product launches, then quick churn until it reaches a floor. DU's floor will be much lower than Amazon's, though....and Amazon monetized their game by ditching a sub and making the cost up-front...so even with daily active players being 1/10th of launch, they likely recouped all their production costs. On the other hand, DU will need to keep new players subbed for 4 months to make the same revenue. After release, the cost to acquire users only increases -- so let's hope Athena massively, massively improves FTUE and gives new player a reason to stay subbed....otherwise it'll become very clear how "not ready" the game was and there won't be another opportunity to fix it.

There's also some survivor's bias in trying to understand what's important to the game through the lens of beta players that are still here. Everyone that's left here didn't have an issue with FTUE...but the legions of abandoned speeders and gradual loss of players in the months after beta launched tell a more dire story. Mentioning CCP's 90 day window is important context. At $9.99/month, you need them to stay for more than just 1 month...especially if you acquired the user from paid ads. If 1/10 people convert from a click (which is very good) that means a $1 CPC will only break even on month 1...and the average CPC for online games is more than $1. Any dip in conversion rate or increase in CPC could turn ROI negative. Similar math for CPM...it's a competitive space. If too many people bail after one month of subscription, that substantially limits NQ's ability to compete in the ad space and grow the game since they don't see any real profit until month 2. Hence why FTUE is so vital...if they bail after 3 months, so be it. Bailing after one billing cycle? That would drastically limit their ability to market the game.

They don't "get past that stage" automatically, they need to be motivated enough in the early game to actually get there. If they quit at a (remotely) similar rate as public beta, there's simply no future for this game. No point at all in a mid/late game if only the minority get there...with the last launch, very few did. Mid/late game is what the current player-base needs, but it won't help them on release if 50% of players can't get past the early game. That ocean of abandoned speeders was just an annoyance for beta...it can't repeat itself in release, because it represents extremely high churn at the first stages of the game. No, I'm just stating that FTUE is still problematic -- and that if they wipe or not isn't nearly as big a deal as new players coming into the game and rapidly quitting. I'm not saying that they need "prime real estate" necessarily, I'm saying that market access is fundamental for new players to engage with the game. If you force them to travel long distances over and over, you can drive their engagement into the ground along with the viability of the game in general. And that's just one facet of FTUE that needs improvement, so I really hope Athena does a lot here. I agree, but that isn't a thing and has no ETA...and may never arrive if NQ can't get enough new players to convert permanently to subscribers. I get that most people have been playing the beta for a long time and their experiences are shaped by that...but this is an MMO that needs to greatly expand the subscriber-base to remain online. The people still left around here aren't the typical new player and if NQ forgets that it will be a painful few months post-release as churn rates drive the game's sustainability into the ground.

I wouldn't dismiss the issue of tile proximity to a market so simply -- the game will face a permanent wipe if this release doesn't go well, and release won't go well if new players give up! Last time (public beta launch), a lot of people gave up and couldn't even escape the "speeder phase". That was obvious based on market clutter. You can tell them that being near a market is an "end game privilege", but that means DU's FTUE will never be good enough to retain a huge slice of new players. Their new player experience will be vacuuming rocks, long speeder trips back and forth to the market as they figure out the game, and waiting around for mining units to spit out ore. Yes, some people thrive in a sandbox with little or no direction...but this isn't a niche indie space game, it's an MMO that needs 10s of thousands of subscriptions to remain online. It will not work if new players can't get engaged. People are focusing on the wipe as if that's the most important thing for this game's health, but I don't see why it's so important (except that existing players obviously don't want to lose their work when they expected to keep it which is fair). FTUE is the most important thing for this game's health and people have little to say about it. FTUE is what will make or break this game, so I'm very curious to see exactly how this will change with Athena.

I do understand that the game will be updated post-release -- every live MMO changes drastically over time. The concern is that the game won't be polished enough on release to continue development and get to that magical post-release cycle where you have enough players to be stable. I do hope that these minor updates greatly improve the experience and add a lot more polish (especially around FTUE), but we've seen the development cadence and we know how much there is to do. Being able to update post-release isn't a given -- we've seen how this works with the public beta. A spike of popularity in the weeks after release -- and you have that one window of high visibility. One chance at a first impression. One opportunity to take that spike of new players and cultivate it into long-term subs. These players won't be patient -- they won't stick around to see how the game is improved unless they fall in love with it as it is on release day 1. Some will, but won't most follow the same trend as beta players and never escape the speeder phase? What happens if that window of high visibility passes and churn rates aren't much better than public beta...? Also, the game has to prove its worth every month -- so unless updates come monthly, the game as it exists on release will need to make a big enough impression to keep the bulk of these new players engaged and subbed for several billing cycles (3-4 based on past development velocity).

We all knew this game's chances were far from certain since the start. We expected release would be soon....I'm a bit surprised that this will be their last major update, but I shouldn't be. Honestly...what has NQ actually done since beta started...? Territory war? Nope, unless you count this alien crap Mission system? Not really -- not even half done and still has issues. Stabilization / performance? Sort of -- by removing mining...but there's little chance it will support large battles, cities, or unplanned gatherings. No one believes this is a robust, optimized game that could scale cleanly to support millions. Even with the many bug fixes, it is far from "robust". Player made markets? Obviously not. Managing the production/consumption of energy? Nah. Professional-looking UI/UX? Maybe they'll sneak this in, but I doubt it. I'm not just listing these randomly, they are all part of the old roadmap. That's not even considering things like AvA, more than one system, pets, or better character customization...fundamentally, it isn't that much different from the day public beta dropped. In some ways, the game is even worse than the day it went public... I wish all of NQ's employees the best and feel bad for anyone that's tried to make a life at NQ, but I don't see how this game will survive the post-release churn rate except via a lot of downsizing at NQ's two offices.

I have to agree that this seems....not nearly enough to get the game to release. I don't think NQ realizes just how rough he game still is...even the first 10 seconds of the game makes it feel very indie. Hopefully they have time to revamp the UI/UX and make it look more like a professional game worth a subscription...although I doubt it. They expect churn rates to be better compared to public beta after this last year of dev -- but I expect them to be about the same, maybe even worse depending on exactly how they change FTUE. I don't see anything in the last year or two of updates that makes me believe that >50% of general release players will make it past the "speeder" phase of the game. It might be enough to make the company solvent with a lot of layoffs and closing one office, but I have trouble believing it will ever grow beyond its small niche if this is what it'll look like come release.

Some will be mad, but I think there's a misunderstanding of the demographics if people think wiping the servers will "kill" the game. The beta population is tiny. Too tiny to be a concern for NQ's bottom line. Especially betas on an actual subscription. The difference between keeping all the beta players and losing them all is almost immaterial at the scale they need to achieve to stay solvent. They needs 10s of thousands of subs to turn things around. To maintain at the scale of their company today, they'd probably need near 100k subs -- and $12 million/year in revenue isn't even enough for a company of NQ's size and costs. So...NQ doesn't really care if every beta leaves because they decide to wipe or decide to not wipe. They'd rather keep us, sure...but they're going to do whatever believe will get them to that scale, and "will beta players leave" just isn't an important part of that calculation.