blundertwink

The third paragraph in the job posting talks plenty about DU -- you're right that this might be focused on other projects, but I don't think so. Edit: also, the requirements make it clear this is for a game: "Knowledge/experience of mobile, console, /F2P games or Platform business model is a must-have. A degree in Game Design, Economics, Finance, Mathematics, or equivalent" It isn't likely that any other NQ project is actually a game (all we've heard on this front is some BS about "3d blogging"). The reality is that NQ will bend DU to whatever direction they need in an attempt to monetize the game. Some concepts don't work with FTP? They will rip them out...just as they ripped out mining to replace with auto-miners, they can rip out auto-miners to replace with something that works for FTP. NQ's history shows they have no qualms about major refactors and ripping stuff out of the game. For all that DU "won't work" as an FTP game...it works even less as a subscription game. Don't get me wrong...with FTP, the challenges are manifold and chances are slim...but with a subscription, the game has no future at all. NQ is very late to the party in realizing that failed subscription games pivot to FTP for a reason, and now they have to catch up even at the design level. So yeah, it's a massive longshot that will require many many many changes...and IMO means that things like TW are even more of a vague dream than a reality.

IMO, there's no way to make it work without removing the idea of permanent constructs. The promise that your moon base is safe forever was never really sustainable. Certainly they will need to refactor a lot for FTP to work, and I don't think they'll be shy about it. To me, the job description makes it clear that big refactors around monetization are inevitable and the focus will certainly be on monetization over anything else. That said, this is obviously not even in the design stage yet as they're trying to fill the role...so if you like DU as it is, enjoy it while you can because it may be many months before any of this hits production.

I agree completely, which is why I believe that DU is going free to play...or at the very least dropping the sub in favor of an initial purchase price plus IAPs. The barrier to entry for a sub is remarkably high today. Consumers don't view it the same as merely buying a $15 game -- and I think most people understand why, especially with the glut of subscription products across every vertical. I think the idea that more people would try DU if there was no sub or initial commitment is valid. As with everything, success depends on the implementation. I can easily see how it would lead to new players, but will those new players be engaged long enough to buy IAPs? The end result might be a wealth of rapidly churning new players that increase costs without leading to more revenue. This is why they're looking for an actual specialist in monetization design...to try to manipulate that math such that it's a sure win and to make sure KPIs are carefully tracked. Which means bad things for DU's design, most likely...there can be no "permanently safe" bases in a FTP model. But then, we all knew that wasn't sustainable since they day they announced the revamped FTUE.

As anyone can plainly see, NovaQuark is looking for people to join their team: https://www.welcometothejungle.com/en/companies/novaquark/jobs The top open position is for a Monetization Designer. That means one thing: DU is getting in app purchases, and I'd expect is going free to play long-term. The sub model doesn't work for a game of this scale and never will...Regardless of your feelings on free to play as a model, this is what MMOs that don't work as subs invariably do because it sometimes works...and there's really no other option. Here are the responsibilities for the new role in case you think this means something else: Product owner for the monetization design. Design flexible monetization and economy systems and features (progression & reward structures, currencies, sinks & sources etc.) with coherent KPIs and testing plans. Work closely with Design on progression, unlocks, economy and with Art on new content definition & production Collaborate with Finance & Producers on KPIs & Business Plan and with Live Ops/Data regarding new content & key KPIs Work closely with UI & Engineers regarding backend tools and with Marketing on asset production for new content Day-to-day contact for all internal teams when it comes to building and delivering monetization features Write and maintain design documentation that will serve as a reference to guide interdependent teams. Provide your input on in-game content and pricing + come up with suggestions to refine designs. As has been said many times, if DU is going to survive....it can't survive as a subscription game. Unfortunately, I tend to think this will freeze feature dev for a long while (as if it has ever been a priority for the past years lol). This will mean many more refactors to core systems to make the game work around monetization, which is time that won't be spent on things like TW. What do you think about DU getting IAPs? Do you think DU going free to play is inevitable with this...or will they still cling to the delusion of a sub?

That's interesting...but I wouldn't say DU running at 10fps is showcasing "how much optimization" is happening, lol. That the game can physically start on the hardware isn't as impressive as it actually running on that hardware. I would struggle to classify it as "running" at these frame rates. "Loaded the game"? Sure. I guess that's something...

Okay, but there is no playerbase. After 5 months, what content has been added that really improves the game? New skins? One single PvE mission when the typical MMO contains a wealth of PvE content? In reality, the last actual new feature was what...space "territory war" with Alien Cores? Yawn. Every shred of evidence there is suggests that DU's player base is not growing, it's shrinking steadily or at best about what it was during the end of closed beta. Yes, Steam stats are real life...but also the complete lack of social growth across any channel, poor reviews, and simply not seeing anyone in the freakin' game lol. They won't be adding new content and improving the game as it continues to fail as a commercial product. Maybe they will keep stringing some players along with minimal updates pushed out by the few devs they have working on DU compared to their other projects, but there's no way at all this product is commercially viable. So...the performance is what it is and it will only likely get worse, not better...because that's how reality works when the product fails to get customers and therefore has fewer dev resources and less hardware.

All evidence points to DU having a very minimal dev team, as NQ's CEO has repeatedly stated their focus is on projects other than DU. That obviously means resources are being spent elsewhere. Do they test? Probably not very much, all things considered. They've been on the struggle bus in terms of technical debt for many years now, and that will only get worse over time because the game has failed commercially. It would be absurd to suggest that NQ will hire more devs to waste on this product. The few devs they have now can't possibly grow or fix the game on their own. All in all, the game is still a vastly unfinished mess after over 8 years of development and over 5 months of launch. The idea that they might someday pull a "NMS" and turn it around is just pure fantasy -- not with dwindling resources, dwindling players, and an overall crap design, a design which isn't even close to being finished even if it were engaging for more than a few niche players.

Well...NQ has already showcased player creations as a pitch for their "3d blogging" product, so this isn't a big conspiracy or a stretch. The reality is that NQ owns everything players make; I wouldn't be shocked if they utilize this for whatever plans they have in the works. IMO, The VCs always owned NQ...they put in more than $15 million just between Andurance, Azom, and a few individuals. Maybe Andurance had to buy out Azom or some individuals, but the mathematics suggests that this has been the case for a very long time now. Andurance seems fairly big on the metaverse/web3 concept, too...so appointing Abboud was no coincidence and their belief that this direction will somehow conjure ROI is hilarious to me. Yes, by all means...take your failed MMO tech to the metaverse. Seems to fit like a glove.

lol, I do love how NQ's reply is that they check steam and the forums...then the very next post is a clear spam posting to an online casino. That's been online since Nov. 2022. But hey I'll probably be the one that's banned lol

I add this because subscription products are just really hard to pull off, especially today with such a glut of subscription products across verticals other than gaming. You're right that they have shit options at this point....but there's a reason why MMOs that fail to achieve enough scale invariably go FTP! MMOs of any model can't work without enough scale, but FTP can change the dynamics by removing the barrier to entry. Obviously a lot more people would try DU if it was free or even if it had a one-time purchase price. Hate it if you want (I tend to hate it), but FTP is the last resort for MMOs because it often works. You're right that it wouldn't work for DU, because most MMOs are already engineered to tap into time-tested engagement loops that addict people, if only for a month or two. Plenty of time to hit them with an in app purchase, which they usually ship with just in case the sub fails. For better and worse, DU wanted to be different -- it doesn't have these same engagement hooks (and one PvE mission won't fix that). Plus, it was designed at its core to be a sub game -- you're right that the mechanics break down as a FTP game without radical changes (for a whole mess of reasons). This is why I tend to think the game is dead, because they don't have good options to make money with their product...and didn't even plan for the eventuality that they might not be able to scale their subscription base. It's a "bold" strategy from a monetization perspective, especially for a modern MMO. I do respect that perspective. I wish I had optimism in my black heart. Stranger things have happened than DU coming back with a vengeance and kicking ass into the top of the charts. Anything is possible.

Fair enough, I didn't realize this was during maintenance. My mistake! That said, it isn't like the numbers are better today. If it's only 19 during maintenance and only about 60 otherwise...that's not substantively different. The fact is that DU's DAUs have fallen consistently since release. Apparently we agree that their numbers are bad and that the game is not growing, so I'm not sure what your point is in decrying "doomsayers" that declare that the game is dead. There's no evidence that the game is alive or growing...certainly a few hundred new player claims between several weeks is not. In my opinion, 1 PvE mission 5 months after release is not nearly enough growth in terms of actual feature depth. If the idea is that DU can bounce back and stick around for years and years even with mere hundreds of players or will magically explode its player count....well, that's just not a perspective that I understand and to me doesn't align with NQ's 8-year history of slow development and improvised design. There's no way in my mind that NQ's trickle of slow and small updates will bring this game around. I just don't understand the idea that the game might rebound "somehow" or even more baffling...the idea that it actually has a growing player base and is fine because Steam doesn't matter. I genuinely appreciate the optimism of those that believe the game still has a future, but I personally can't see how the math will ever work to make this game a viable product commercially. When even 20,000 subs seems like a hopeless moonshot, it's safe to say it's dead as a subscription product.

I don't really agree, that they've had updates isn't the same thing as developing the game. What real features were added in 1.1 and 1.2? It's 5+ months after release now...clearly it isn't enough. Why would anyone think that 1.3 is going to be a big feature...? We're talking about one single PvE mission when having PvE content over 5 months after release for an MMO is not exactly something to celebrate when the expectations from every other product in this genre is that this is standard. I don't view NQ's slow and minor updates as real development...but I'll agree that's entirely subjective and it's up to players to decide if their new skins and one new mission is enough to grow the game. I don't see it. Except that DU hasn't had more than 1,000 concurrent players on Steam ever...its active player count has cratered since release down to barely over 100 people a day! There's an ocean of difference between DU and a game like PUBG or EQ. Those games have had some level of scale in their life, DU hasn't. Even NQ's CEO describes DU as a "moonshot". There's a huge, huge difference between "doomsaying" -- declaring something without any evidence -- and DU, where there's no objective evidence to indicate actual player growth. Occupied territory count is a far worse metric than Steam stats because of what I've already explained -- the only metrics tell you anything for a subscription product are churn rate and number of subs. Steam stats are the closest thing to churn rate we can see because it measures DAUs -- territory counts do not. A few hundred new players every few weeks is really, really bad even if you assume a conservative churn rate based on known metrics. That's not growth. We're talking about a game that as I'm writing this has 19 people playing it on Steam. That's what death looks like. There's more people playing 2015's "Corgi Warlock" on Steam than DU, an MMO that's not been out a year. That's not a growing, alive game.

Where are these stats even coming from? Also, "another 200 paying accounts have joined the game" means very little for a subscription MMORPG. What matters is churn rate -- obviously if the game is gaining 200 new players every month but 300 players cancel their sub, that's not growth. There's no such thing as a subscription that "maintains" its user count -- it doesn't exist. Subs must constantly gain new users every single month just to "maintain" their user count because churn is a fact of life. In my view, a dead game is much like a dead language. It being "dead" has little to do with how many people speak it. Plenty of people speak Latin. It's "dead" as a language because it's no longer evolving and changing. I view DU in a similar way. It has enough subs for NQ to keep the lights on, but DU hasn't had any real substantive evolution for a long time now (since even before release). Nor is it realistic to expect that this will magically change as NQ's devs focus on other projects. And as @RugesV has said, 200 accounts is not material, regardless...but especially so in the wider context of churn. A game can certainly get new accounts every week and still be dead commercially and dead in terms of development.

I'm not convinced that terrain modification of any sort is practical at scale for most MMOs. The benefits it brings are overrated relative to the complexity and inherent scaling issues. Even with simplistic cube-based voxels, terrain modification can't scale without hard limits in any MMO -- especially in a single shard subscription MMO where there's no mechanisms to control traffic or monetize users beyond the one flat fee (which can't scale due to increasing costs over time). The problem isn't their implementation of terrain systems, it's the core design...voxels don't solve anything at all with the fundamental problem! The issue has never been the way terrain is rendered (voxels vs. mesh), it's the scale of terraforming that doesn't work with an MMO like DU, period. If NQ had asked the question "how will this scale?" early on, they'd have saved a lot of time and money that could have been invested elsewhere....but again, the founder started this project with no game dev experience (and limited career experience outside academia). He cared more about metaverse fantasy than real-life engineering. Honestly, there are a lot of great ideas that would "improve" DU, but finding great ideas that are practical, scalable, and realistic to implement for a team of their size...? Very difficult if not impossible.

I agree with this too....but it also shows how extremely difficult it is to make any MMO builder actually work, especially as a subscription. It just doesn't work when costs increase (at best linearly) over time per user -- but revenue doesn't. How can you compete against similar games in the genre when your costs per user are far higher but your revenue is the same...? I don't think a subscription MMO builder makes sense absent a mess of P2P technology or a breakthrough that makes infra many times cheaper. People like subs better than endless micro transactions, but a sub model doesn't work for a game like this absent a way to precisely control for costs. NQ's choices from 0.23 onward were absolutely driven by the late realization that monetizing the game via a sub couldn't work without these controls. This again put them in a catch-22. If they left things as they were, the game might be more popular, but what's the point in being popular if it isn't profitable...? And that sums up NQ's design philosophy overall in my opinion: a lot of paradoxical choices that work against each other instead of creating a cohesive core. Hence why it's so difficult to be "helpful" -- any real suggestion that could help the game amounts to a massive amount of refactors or new features because there's so many facets that just don't work together to create a cohesive experience.

The very idea that Dual Universe is going to last another 12 months is puzzling to me... There's no reason to actually believe that other than hope, which is fine I guess...but let's not pretend that NQ is scaling up their dev efforts and that they merely need to catch up. Their CEO has been clear that his priority has been (for a long time now) adapting the underlying tech to new products. You know...products that actually have a chance of commercial success, at least in their eyes. DU isn't such a product, and that ought to be rather clear by now. Bad reviews, flagging pops, and clearly a mountain of tech debt such that changes are glacially slow. This isn't merely a staffing issue where devs need time to get up to speed -- why would anyone believe that NQ will onboard new devs to a product their own CEO describes as a "moonshot"...? There's no evidence of that, regardless. I keep saying it because people want to pretend otherwise: NQ's development priority is not Dual Universe. If you think that their pace will magically improve even as the company's leader is clearly saying "we're focused on other things"...that's just fantasy to me.

There will never be Territory War or AvA. I don't know why people keep talking about DU as if NQ is working on the game full-steam. They aren't. The CEO has been very clear that DU is not NQ's main focus...and why would it be amid bad reviews, flagging player pops, and a mountain of technical debt? The "big" thing they're working on after 5+ months of release is one PvE mission...this imagination of Haven being full or changes that come when TW is ready is weird to me, because there's no evidence that this will ever arrive. The only real evidence we have is that NQ's CEO is 100% focused on adapting DU's core tech to other projects. It'd be silly to suggest that DU has the majority of NQ's resources when even NQ's CEO describes it as a "moonshot". Every piece of evidence about the game points to DU getting fewer dev resources as the company attempts to pivot, slower updates, and most importantly...massively churning players. So this imagination of "when" TW "will" come is puzzling to me, because I don't see it as "inevitable" -- I'd be surprised if the game keeps getting updates through the rest of the year, never mind this far-flung future when Haven is full and TW exists.

Wrong. First, it helps people that are interested in the game -- they deserve to know if the developer charging them month-to-month is actually focused on the game. Second, it helps people that are already subscribed...NQ is clearly saying "we're working on other things", they just aren't keen on announcing it in places that most gamers see. People have every right to know what they're paying for and if DU is NQ's main priority, because the actual evidence sure doesn't indicate it is. Third, I'm not obligated to "help or get out of the way" (as if a post that no one reads is somehow "getting in the way" lol). If you disagree with my opinion, fine...you're free to articulate your opinion and explain your reasoning, too. But you aren't lord of the forum that gets to brand opinions or observations they don't like as "trolling". To me, trolling people is attacking people personally instead of discussing the topic or focusing on opinions about the game.

I do find it a bit funny that some people insist that the game is not only great, but that it's popular. When you mention Steam stats they get really mad and insist that Steam "means nothing" because it's only one part of the picture...which is true. There's also an ocean of bad reviews (both from players and press), no social growth at all in years, no one watching on twitch, no major dev progress for a long time now, and both the CEO and NQ's open job postings clearly stating that they are working on multiple projects other than DU. The last new feature (that wasn't merely refactoring concepts they already had) was what...? Alien Cores and the new FTUE introduced around April of 2022...? The only new "content" announced after 4 months of horrible release numbers is what...one PvE mission? But sure, DU is the one magical product in the universe that's growing organically while showing no growth across social, negative growth on Steam, little press, no ads, and no major feature development. Sounds reasonable to me. 🤷‍♂️

Well, more realistic and complex animations, anyway. That isn't the same as "game mechanics", it's asset production -- which is maybe what you meant, so I don't mean to be nitpicky. Just saying, there's a big difference between "AI driven game mechanics" and "AI as a tool to author assets". Procedurally generated animations have been a thing for a while now, so this is definitely an evolution of an idea that some studios have been using for a long time. AI driven game mechanics are far harder to imagine via AI unless you're making very simple clones of existing games. Good mechanics require creativity and a deep understanding of engagement, which even the best designers can't really quantify in objective terms...so machine learning is a long way from being able to drive "mechanics" but it will be fascinating to see if and how it changes asset creation.

This is all true -- but unfortunately there's no evidence to suggest that NQ is developing DU as their main priority (and plenty of evidence to the contrary). It's been over 4 months since it released as a new subscription MMO with very few updates, no impactful marketing or growth, and very little communication. Even their "roadmap" is vague, not especially impactful, and is apparently in no hurry to be deployed. The only statements from their CEO are about new projects, as has been his focus for a while per his own statements. Even if they deploy a big patch tomorrow...will it be enough to change anything? I don't see how it could be. "Release now, fix later" means the game has earned almost universal "meh" reviews -- and their Steam stats are so bad any promotions they opt into will not be seen by anyone (as evidenced by the 'base building' promo that just ended). This is really, really hard to come back from, even if NQ accepted and fixed the game's many faults (which they don't, really). I think NQ has basically given up on trying to turn this around, but they'd never say so because they can still milk whatever subs they have for as long as humanly possible...which is what they will do.

1. Games that grow organically always grow on Steam if available there, too. There's many examples of MMOs with stand-alone clients that reflect this trend, from FF14 to STO. If a game is showing churn on Steam, it's very hard to argue that their launcher is showing the opposite trend. 2. Games that are growing always have growing social media followers. DU's reddit hasn't moved beyond ~8.4k subs in a very long time. It briefly became 8.5k after launch, but that didn't last long. Even here, you can see the views for posts are far, far, far lower than early in the forum's history. 3. Growing games have development activity! DU's version of this is a list of (rather small) changes with no timelines. Months after release, very little has changed...looking at the last year of dev, the pace is glacial -- far too slow to combat churn in any universe. Yes, we will never know the game's true stats....but saying "DU isn't growing" is more than just random conjecture -- it's based on more than just one source of data as evidence. Regardless, no matter how you slice the math...the game doesn't have enough subs to sustain itself, especially with this pace of dev.

What do you even mean by "server engine architecture"...? Why would you want a backend that's failed to scale at every turn -- especially one that's likely vendor-locked into AWS? Regardless, there is a way to buy it off them...clearly NQ is wanting to be acquired. Their timing and strategy sucks...because they are hoping their early trademarks around "metaverse" and whatever patents they hold would make them an easy target for some big entity investing in the metaverse. Of course, Microsoft just dropped their metaverse project and no one believes Meta's platform will amount to jack shit. There's no "big entity" left other than Meta, and they have no need for NQ's silly trademark or poorly implemented tech. People in this metaverse space are dropping like flies for a good reason. I do believe NQ's leadership genuinely believes in web3 (hence their announcement that their current development focus is on metaverse tooling like "3d blogging")...and this belief absent any evidence, valid use case, or basic understanding of the technology in general is (as time will prove) not a healthy way to run a company.

Keep in mind that NQ's design lead is someone whose career has mostly focused on simple arcade and retro games. They hadn't worked on an MMO before NQ. Their last design credit before DU was a Trivial Pursuit video game adaptation...some of their design credits are for games that you can't even download anymore! Don't get me wrong, they are definitely very experienced in the world of designing retro and arcade games, and I'm not trying to say such products are "easy" to design for, but I don't think this experience has translated very well to an MMO. In general, people tend to stick with what they know...so if anything, you can probably expect more mini-games...

Truly a great game, and for $10....hard to go wrong! I've spent an obscene amount of time in Satisfactory, which is perhaps one reason why I find DU's version of industrialization so boring and shallow. I wouldn't ever expect that same level of scale from an MMO, but there's some great factory games for NQ to draw inspiration from... If only their leadership believed that DU was a video game, maybe they'd be able to look to other products in similar genres and understand why their "designs" so frequently fail to work!