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DU is Going Free to Play...?


blundertwink

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As anyone can plainly see, NovaQuark is looking for people to join their team: https://www.welcometothejungle.com/en/companies/novaquark/jobs 

 

The top open position is for a Monetization Designer.

 

That means one thing: DU is getting in app purchases, and I'd expect is going free to play long-term.

 

The sub model doesn't work for a game of this scale and never will...Regardless of your feelings on free to play as a model, this is what MMOs that don't work as subs invariably do because it sometimes works...and there's really no other option. 

 

Here are the responsibilities for the new role in case you think this means something else: 

 

  • Product owner for the monetization design.
  • Design flexible monetization and economy systems and features (progression & reward structures, currencies, sinks & sources etc.) with coherent KPIs and testing plans.
  • Work closely with Design on progression, unlocks, economy and with Art on new content definition & production
  • Collaborate with Finance & Producers on KPIs & Business Plan and with Live Ops/Data regarding new content & key KPIs
  • Work closely with UI & Engineers regarding backend tools and with Marketing on asset production for new content
  • Day-to-day contact for all internal teams when it comes to building and delivering monetization features
  • Write and maintain design documentation that will serve as a reference to guide interdependent teams.
  • Provide your input on in-game content and pricing + come up with suggestions to refine designs.

 

As has been said many times, if DU is going to survive....it can't survive as a subscription game. 

 

Unfortunately, I tend to think this will freeze feature dev for a long while (as if it has ever been a priority for the past years lol).

 

This will mean many more refactors to core systems to make the game work around monetization, which is time that won't be spent on things like TW. 

 

What do you think about DU getting IAPs? Do you think DU going free to play is inevitable with this...or will they still cling to the delusion of a sub? 

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今更?!!  As we say in Japan, "Ima sara?"..... Oh, so *now* we're down to a double digit player base they are talking about monetization?

Another one we use in situations like this is...

後の祭り! Ato no matsuri..... meaning, "the festival is already over..."

Microtransactions with the current population is going to be pretty much the death throes of DU. There is no way MTs can raise useful amounts of cash with these numbers. Unless MTs stands for Mega Transactions.

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31 minutes ago, Jinxed said:

There is no way MTs can raise useful amounts of cash with these numbers

 

I agree completely, which is why I believe that DU is going free to play...or at the very least dropping the sub in favor of an initial purchase price plus IAPs. 

 

The barrier to entry for a sub is remarkably high today. Consumers don't view it the same as merely buying a $15 game -- and I think most people understand why, especially with the glut of subscription products across every vertical. 

 

I think the idea that more people would try DU if there was no sub or initial commitment is valid. As with everything, success depends on the implementation.

 

I can easily see how it would lead to new players, but will those new players be engaged long enough to buy IAPs? The end result might be a wealth of rapidly churning new players that increase costs without leading to more revenue. 

 

This is why they're looking for an actual specialist in monetization design...to try to manipulate that math such that it's a sure win and to make sure KPIs are carefully tracked. 

 

Which means bad things for DU's design, most likely...there can be no "permanently safe" bases in a FTP model. But then, we all knew that wasn't sustainable since they day they announced the revamped FTUE. 

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and the influx of compaints about no symmetry mode(which is in everything else?), separate engine and fuel types for atmo and space, weird vertices that span more than they should(smooth will add a questionable 'new vertex' across another area that had nothing to do with part you smoothed), schematics(where do all the quanta go, change to energy management like people wanted to prevent monopolies), taxes(dump and use hq limit, no more flowers>:D), space travel speed and artificial speed limiters(larger mass doesnt get slower in space, just increase stasis range and slow effect), and finally L and XL wings/atmo engines/hovers in various shapes(long/wide/tall/other), desgregation of fuel types and engine types, minus rockets, those can stay in their weird place(everything atmo/space nitron>:D), otherwise complaints and new empyrion/space engineer players will be made.(or some other space building games), and maybe finally LINKED TANKS.

Edited by Kirion
unfinished idea.
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So.. The game is failing even as a tech demo for their voxel technology, since there is hardly anyone willing to play any more.

And the last ditch effort to get anyone to play is F2P? How is that going to work in a game where both active and inactive constructs (left behind by hit-and-run F2P players) will lead to increased server cost?

 

And what about people with unused DAC/long term subscriptions?

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1 minute ago, CptLoRes said:

How is that going to work in a game where both active and inactive constructs (left behind by hit-and-run F2P players) will lead to increased server cost?

 

IMO, there's no way to make it work without removing the idea of permanent constructs. 

 

The promise that your moon base is safe forever was never really sustainable. Certainly they will need to refactor a lot for FTP to work, and I don't think they'll be shy about it.

 

To me, the job description makes it clear that big refactors around monetization are inevitable and the focus will certainly be on monetization over anything else. 

 

That said, this is obviously not even in the design stage yet as they're trying to fill the role...so if you like DU as it is, enjoy it while you can because it may be many months before any of this hits production. 

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On 3/7/2023 at 10:18 PM, CptLoRes said:

And what about people with unused DAC/long term subscriptions?

 

They can try to convert it in premium currency or make active subs into premium accounts. There is some options to fool people again.

 

On 3/7/2023 at 9:07 PM, Jinxed said:

There is no way MTs can raise useful amounts of cash with these numbers.

 

They can do again some sort of re-launch, even if this sounds pretty wierd now. Not pure wipe, but like "betrayal" reset, launching second server, so 1st one with old people just die "naturaly", without formally being deleted. There is some options too. 

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If you want a centralised server-heavy game like DU to be non-subscription you might as well ask for chocolate to rain from the sky!  Eve added all of these things, but it kept the subscription component as well (there are alphas but nobody really uses those seriously except as alts).  DU absolutely would not work as a FTP game.  I could have 100 free accounts and mission run or automine with them.  Don't let the free accounts do that?  It would be broken from the start like the Alphas in eve, which are more of a 'try before you buy' type of account than anything else.  DU has limited free-to-play already on steam and it didn't solve any problems.

 

I'm pretty sure the rest of that job advert talks about the exciting new projects the company is working on so I don't think it's necessarily a Dual Universe role being advertised.  IIRC the advert doesn't mention things like MMO, 'our current product' or anything like that.

 

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5 hours ago, Zeddrick said:

If you want a centralised server-heavy game like DU to be non-subscription you might as well ask for chocolate to rain from the sky!  Eve added all of these things, but it kept the subscription component as well (there are alphas but nobody really uses those seriously except as alts).  DU absolutely would not work as a FTP game.  I could have 100 free accounts and mission run or automine with them.  Don't let the free accounts do that?  It would be broken from the start like the Alphas in eve, which are more of a 'try before you buy' type of account than anything else.  DU has limited free-to-play already on steam and it didn't solve any problems.

 

I'm pretty sure the rest of that job advert talks about the exciting new projects the company is working on so I don't think it's necessarily a Dual Universe role being advertised.  IIRC the advert doesn't mention things like MMO, 'our current product' or anything like that.

 

youre right, costume and element skin selling wont help them at all, nevermind noveans dont have faces, just mouths(friend had collision on foot once and it zoomed through the mask to show... no face... no wonder every novean keeps their helmet on, their dullahans not humans.  nor would booster tp packs to reduce talent training, perma contruct count slots.. and those drone thingies people get for staying as long as they have.

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DU Standalone version ...

Single Player game >

Create World >

Settings

Number of Alioth Planets =1

Number of Lacobus Planets = 222

Max Speed Limit = 7 SU/sec

Total Player Constructs = 1.800.000

 

 

 

 

Edited by Habitant
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18 hours ago, Zeddrick said:

If you want a centralised server-heavy game like DU to be non-subscription you might as well ask for chocolate to rain from the sky!  Eve added all of these things, but it kept the subscription component as well (there are alphas but nobody really uses those seriously except as alts).  DU absolutely would not work as a FTP game.  I could have 100 free accounts and mission run or automine with them.  Don't let the free accounts do that?  It would be broken from the start like the Alphas in eve, which are more of a 'try before you buy' type of account than anything else.  DU has limited free-to-play already on steam and it didn't solve any problems.

 

I'm pretty sure the rest of that job advert talks about the exciting new projects the company is working on so I don't think it's necessarily a Dual Universe role being advertised.  IIRC the advert doesn't mention things like MMO, 'our current product' or anything like that.

 

The third paragraph in the job posting talks plenty about DU -- you're right that this might be focused on other projects, but I don't think so.

 

Edit: also, the requirements make it clear this is for a game: "Knowledge/experience of mobile, console, /F2P games or Platform business model is a must-have. A degree in Game Design, Economics, Finance, Mathematics, or equivalent" 

 

It isn't likely that any other NQ project is actually a game (all we've heard on this front is some BS about "3d blogging"). 

 

The reality is that NQ will bend DU to whatever direction they need in an attempt to monetize the game.

 

Some concepts don't work with FTP? They will rip them out...just as they ripped out mining to replace with auto-miners, they can rip out auto-miners to replace with something that works for FTP. NQ's history shows they have no qualms about major refactors and ripping stuff out of the game.

 

For all that DU "won't work" as an FTP game...it works even less as a subscription game.

 

Don't get me wrong...with FTP, the challenges are manifold and chances are slim...but with a subscription, the game has no future at all.

 

NQ is very late to the party in realizing that failed subscription games pivot to FTP for a reason, and now they have to catch up even at the design level. So yeah, it's a massive longshot that will require many many many changes...and IMO means that things like TW are even more of a vague dream than a reality.

Edited by blundertwink
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To me the concept of "Free to play" just doesn't fit here.  This isn't a complete game yet, and it already costs way more money to operate then the older MMOs that have "gone FTP" in the past.  I think DU's target audience is a bit older and can afford a monthly subscription.  And i think people who are discovering the game, and then leaving, aren't leaving because the game costs too much.  They're leaving because NQ hasn't spent enough money giving them a reason to stay.  I think they would pay more, if there was more to pay for.

 

NQ needs to stop worrying about how to get new players and focus on making the game as good as it sounds on paper.

 

Whether the game is FTP or not i do think it needs more ways to spend money once you are already playing it.

 

I would be more than happy to pay extra for things like new element skins, new honeycomb textures, extra core slots, more character customization etc.

 

I would pay big money for more Honeycomb textures and element skins especially.  More ship parts, and more decorative elements.

 

 

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20 hours ago, Kirion said:

youre right, costume and element skin selling wont help them at all, nevermind noveans dont have faces, just mouths(friend had collision on foot once and it zoomed through the mask to show... no face... no wonder every novean keeps their helmet on, their dullahans not humans.  nor would booster tp packs to reduce talent training, perma contruct count slots.. and those drone thingies people get for staying as long as they have.

Not saying that those things won't raise money.  They won't raise as much money as the sub.  So do it as well as a sub is good, going FTU and relying on that stuff to pay the bills is suicide.

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9 hours ago, blundertwink said:

 

The third paragraph in the job posting talks plenty about DU -- you're right that this might be focused on other projects, but I don't think so.

The reality is that NQ will bend DU to whatever direction they need in an attempt to monetize the game.

 

Some concepts don't work with FTP? They will rip them out...just as they ripped out mining to replace with auto-miners, they can rip out auto-miners to replace with something that works for FTP. NQ's history shows they have no qualms about major refactors and ripping stuff out of the game.

 

For all that DU "won't work" as an FTP game...it works even less as a subscription game.

 

Don't get me wrong...with FTP, the challenges are manifold and chances are slim...but with a subscription, the game has no future at all.

 

NQ is very late to the party in realizing that failed subscription games pivot to FTP for a reason, and now they have to catch up even at the design level. So yeah, it's a massive longshot that will require many many many changes...and IMO means that things like TW are even more of a vague dream than a reality.


I saw the advert somewhere else actually so it might have been paraphrased or cut down from that one.  The question with going F2P is 'will it make more money than the sub is making'.  IMO that's a definite no at the moment, even games like eve online with a giant playerbase can't make that fly and have to keep the sub as well as other monetisation.  The other question is 'will it bring more players?'.  For me that's a 'no' too.  There are people who think it will, just like there were people who thought a wipe would do the same.  And for a short while those people would be right, just like with the wipe.  But then all those free players will leave again without having paid anything, leaving behind constructs, etc which will need to be stored (because how do you remove those if you aren't using sub expiration -- it's not just a case of removing things, DU would be fundamentally broken if there were no subs and this is just one example).

If I were NQ I would absolutely not want to do any sort of F2P.   Really F2P games fall into 2 categories (some do a mix):

 - cosmetic only ones.  You pay some people to constantly create a ton of content to the players.  That's the product and the game is just a vehicle to sell that stuff.  The game wants to have a low run overhead so the people who buy nothing are not such a drag on everything.  DU is server-heavy and, given the amount of changes we saw to reduce server cost, not a game with a low run overhead.  Also you need to constantly make new content so you need a large player base to spread the content creation cost across.

- something like a season pass pretending to be a sub.  In an MMO that means nerfing the game heavily for anyone who doesn't buy the pass.  A bit like alpha in eve.  But DU finds it hard to retain players at the moment, nerfing them would make it *really* hard to retain them and if people don't want to sub why would they use the season pass?

-Pay to win.  Here the free players are effectively the product which is sold to the whales as a group of people to be better than/beat/etc.  DU doesn't really revolve around adversarial content much so what would the whales pay for?   Also this needs a large population of non-whales because it's not very much fun playing in one of these games if you aren't a whale so there's a lot of player churn.  The last thing DU needs is a lot of player churn.

For me the sub is really the only way to go.  I think in any case sub games appeal more to older gamers -- by the time you get into your mid 20s you probably have a ton of bigger subscriptions anyway ranging from netflix/spotify/whatever up to power bills, council tax and mortgages and suchlike and the sub cost is really irrelevant.  I could buy over 4 one-month subs for the price of the '5 guys' I ordered last night, for example.  I think this is also the demographic DU appeals to anyway because of the slow pace and patience required so the sub model is a match.  It's also the only one which really works with low player counts because the income from the sub matches the costs the player incurs.

If I were NQ right now I would be looking at other ways to take the technology from DU and roll it into other games which would have broader appeal to replace the revenue they currently get from DU as it winds down.  I would also be looking at ways to design those from the start to be F2P friendly so I might be hiring someone for that ...
 

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37 minutes ago, Zeddrick said:

Not saying that those things won't raise money.  They won't raise as much money as the sub.  So do it as well as a sub is good, going FTU and relying on that stuff to pay the bills is suicide.

black desert online would like a word, which with realtime everything the servers have to calculate alot more than a voxel being place(with mystery lag for some reason half the time)

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6 minutes ago, Kirion said:

black desert online would like a word, which with realtime everything the servers have to calculate alot more than a voxel being place(with mystery lag for some reason half the time)

It has a player count in the 10s of millions.  DU has a player count in the single digit thousands.  That means that if BDO spends $1,000 creating a player skin which sells for $1 it only needs to sell 1,000 to the 12 million players to break even.  The same maths in DU means it would need to sell to something like 1 in 5 players just to break even, and not cover any server costs at all.  Games which go F2P need a huge upfront investment (loss making) to create a large player base to sell to.

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18 hours ago, Zeddrick said:

Games which go F2P need a huge upfront investment (loss making) to create a large player base to sell to.

 

Yes...there's no way to slice the math where NQ makes a profit without scale. Someone at NQ must have suggested that going FTP will 'bring in a lot more people' and that might be true...but no MMO can exist without scale long-term and spending time to implement FTP means the game will not improve. As you've pointed out, the sort of changes needed for FTP might bring the opposite...

 

Best of luck to the poor soul that takes this job. 

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2 hours ago, blundertwink said:

Best of luck to the poor soul that takes this job. 

And NQ knows it to.

 

From the job description:

Quote

The responsibilities will be to:

    - Product owner for the monetization design.

 

Preferred experience

Must-have skills/experience:

    - Junior to mid-level of XP in the industry, in an operational role

 

 

That right there is a very telling story, with NQ basically wanting to hire from the lower ranks to fill a senior/chief position. Either in a cynical attempt to try and cut cost with a lower salary, or simply because they know that someone experienced would most likely take one look at the project and immediately walk away. Or a combination of both..

 

Either way it is just yet another example of NQ doing what NQ does best.

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5 hours ago, blundertwink said:

 

Yes...there's no way to slice the math where NQ makes a profit without scale. Someone at NQ must have suggested that going FTP will 'bring in a lot more people' and that might be true...but no MMO can exist without scale long-term and spending time to implement FTP means the game will not improve. As you've pointed out, the sort of changes needed for FTP might bring the opposite...

 

Best of luck to the poor soul that takes this job. 

No, even eve online at over 400,000 players is still too small to go F2P.   And it took them a loong time to get there.  No way anyone thinks they can go from single digit thousands of players to F2P funded by cosmetics in one go.  I mean, is it going to bring 100,000 players?  Will they stay long enough to buy anything?

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Well many of us saw what happened last night when under 100 players tried to kill each other.  Neither side could shoot each other properly.  At one point both seats on my ship were shooting the same target and getting hits but the guns were firing in completely different directions.

 

With 100,000 they would need to spread people out more, meaning more planets, more solar systems, etc and then it might scale.

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On 3/11/2023 at 6:20 AM, Zeddrick said:

No way anyone thinks they can go from single digit thousands of players to F2P funded by cosmetics in one go.  I mean, is it going to bring 100,000 players? 

 

Its impossible on other level.


DU operates with very specific demography of older "space games loving" players, its simply very little of them in abosulute numbers in gaming world and DU alienated huge % already over years. 

 

Joke Steam numbers say how "interested" are everyone else. They are not. Free or not free.

 

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