Could this game eventually "kill" Star Citizen?

[blazemonger]

30 minutes ago, CousinSal said:

SC is making money. Profit. 

 

Making money, sure. Making profit, not so much.. 
They are generating a good bit of revenue, sure. But their bottom line is still pretty much zero.

[CptLoRes]

But SC is at least still making improvements.. NQ/DU is by now in pure survival mode, just trying to still be alive for a couple of more months at the time.

[blazemonger]

^^ this ... 

 

Anyone who objectively follows SC can see that there is progress, that stuff gets done and the dev team is able to close out stuff and move to the next.

 

NQ meanwhile is still trying to get the basics to be stable.

[GraXXoR]

On 5/24/2022 at 4:23 AM, bambisagucio said:

I don't think that they will finish star citizen anyways. Like most the Kickstarter projects, Star citizen is just dream selling. How many years have they been doing this game? Did they present something really huge and innovative?

Funny then howcome there is so much more to do in  that so-called ”dream selling” game than this one?
 

That’s why I’ve been spending my hours playing that and NMS and have put in a total of less than 10 hours this year into this game, (about 2 days worth of Star Citizen) 

 

say what you want about that game, the progress profile is the opposite of DU. 
 

in DU the first three years showed promise but ramped DOWN to the current barely moving pace  whereas SC hardly changed for five years and now there are new features almost monthly with large quarterly content drops and the pace is ramping UP and UP. 
 

If I were to spend any more money on either game (I’m not but if I were) I know which one i’d feel more comfortable backing. 

[Rokkur]

The only way DU could kill Star Citizen is to attack it as a zombie and infect it with development necrosis. Cause you know in regards to DU... "It's dead jim".

[Knight-Sevy]

We are not on an SC forum, but I would just add that the economic system of Dual Universe seems to be a more viable system than that of SC.
 

SC financing is based exclusively on the sale of virtual vessels (I saw the last ranges of additions go by lately, it was 400 euros!).
The day the MMO actually comes out I think everything will fall apart.
Either the game will not be fun because there will be an abusive grind system (yes to finance the studio you have to buy more ships). We risk being on several tens or even hundreds of hours of play filled with Fedex quests just to obtain a ship.
If they don't have that ship sale anymore, they have no way of making enough money to continue their high-spending studio lifestyle.
 

On the other hand, they will release their squadrons 2042 games.
It may be a great game. But the MMO will never be finalized.
(even if I will be happy that the future proves me the contrary).

[blundertwink]

7 minutes ago, Knight-Sevy said:

We are not on an SC forum, but I would just add that the economic system of Dual Universe seems to be a more viable system than that of SC.

 

I think the prime of the subscription MMO has come and gone. The transactional model where it's either free or a small buy in but no monthly sub is definitely is a robust, proven way to earn money. 

 

The calculation that many people have is that subs are "more reliable" because it ensures a "steady stream of revenue", but the issue is always churn. 

 

That's even more true in today's era of everything being on a subscription. People have limited bandwidth for these small monthly charges. 

 

Even the best subscription services have about 80% retention, so if you want to have that "consistent" revenue stream you still need a constant outreach effort to bring in new players or your populations will wither away. 

 

DU's inability to develop content quickly (or even tell people what they're working on lol) doesn't work well with a sub model because it encourages churn. 

Nor does its inability to re-engaged lapsed subscribers due to abandonment mechanics -- the design of the game seems to work against its monetization model. 

 

I'm not saying SC is the best version of this no-monthly-charge model (which definitely sucks for non-wealthy gamers), but they did make over $85 million in 2021...their best year yet. So their revenue is growing, release or not. 

 

I'm doubtful that DU will achieve even a modest 20,000 subscriptions...which is only ~$200,000/month in revenue and not nearly enough to support a staff big enough to maintain an MMO or invest in growth/advertisement. Even double this isn't enough, and at that point they'd need ~8,000 new players a month just to fight churn...

Anyone optimistic that DU will achieve this?

 

TLDR: games avoid sub-based monetization because it has many drawbacks, although I agree it is the best model for designing a good game because it sucks to design around monetization

[Knight-Sevy]

1 hour ago, blundertwink said:

 

I think the prime of the subscription MMO has come and gone. The transactional model where it's either free or a small buy in but no monthly sub is definitely is a robust, proven way to earn money. 

 

The calculation that many people have is that subs are "more reliable" because it ensures a "steady stream of revenue", but the issue is always churn. 

 

That's even more true in today's era of everything being on a subscription. People have limited bandwidth for these small monthly charges. 

 

Even the best subscription services have about 80% retention, so if you want to have that "consistent" revenue stream you still need a constant outreach effort to bring in new players or your populations will wither away. 

 

DU's inability to develop content quickly (or even tell people what they're working on lol) doesn't work well with a sub model because it encourages churn. 

Nor does its inability to re-engaged lapsed subscribers due to abandonment mechanics -- the design of the game seems to work against its monetization model. 

 

I'm not saying SC is the best version of this no-monthly-charge model (which definitely sucks for non-wealthy gamers), but they did make over $85 million in 2021...their best year yet. So their revenue is growing, release or not. 

 

I'm doubtful that DU will achieve even a modest 20,000 subscriptions...which is only ~$200,000/month in revenue and not nearly enough to support a staff big enough to maintain an MMO or invest in growth/advertisement. Even double this isn't enough, and at that point they'd need ~8,000 new players a month just to fight churn...

Anyone optimistic that DU will achieve this?

 

TLDR: games avoid sub-based monetization because it has many drawbacks, although I agree it is the best model for designing a good game because it sucks to design around monetization

 

The DAC system on Dual Universe allows people to play for free.

But it will also be with a big farm time...

Well, I find it more healthy than a system based on the frustration of SC: "look at the beautiful ship, if you want it, it's 200 hours of farming BUT we can generously sell it to you for 400€"

The AAA industry unfortunately does this for solos now.
That's why I want to continue supporting and playing subscription MMOs.

Regardless of the fact that Dual Universe is currently rather a disappointment in terms of gaming pleasure.

[blundertwink]

3 minutes ago, Knight-Sevy said:

 

The DAC system on Dual Universe allows people to play for free.

But it will also be with a big farm time...

Well, I find it more healthy than a system based on the frustration of SC: "look at the beautiful ship, if you want it, it's 200 hours of farming BUT we can generously sell it to you for 400€"

The AAA industry unfortunately does this for solos now.
That's why I want to continue supporting and playing subscription MMOs.

Regardless of the fact that Dual Universe is currently rather a disappointment in terms of gaming pleasure.

 

I agree 100% -- it really sucks that monetization now affects game design in this way. "You want the best stuff? Your in-game accomplishments aren't as important as your real life wealth..."

 

I was purely talking from a capitalist perspective, which unfortunately drives a lot of the decision-making around what games get made in today's world of $100-200 million dollar AAA budgets that require investors. 

 

I actually wish more MMOs were sub-based, but sadly I expect that to be an exception vs. a norm unless MMO development becomes radically cheaper. 

[RugesV]

On 5/26/2022 at 4:04 AM, CptLoRes said:

But SC is at least still making improvements.. NQ/DU is by now in pure survival mode, just trying to still be alive for a couple of more months at the time.

You say that, but we have no idea what they are working on. Personally I invision them working on micro transaction content right now.

[SirJohn85]

9 hours ago, RugesV said:

You say that, but we have no idea what they are working on. Personally I invision them working on micro transaction content right now.

 

 

I also wouldn't be surprised if NQ came on release day (or up to 4 weeks after) and said "yo guys, we have cosmetics you can buy for real money."

 

Should this be the case: How about getting the core mechanics done for once? Wasn't the 30 million euro and the trust of the backers enough to put the game in a solid position?

[Zarcata]

3 hours ago, SirJohn85 said:

Wasn't the 30 million euro and the trust of the backers enough to put the game in a solid position?

The money is not much, after all, when you consider over the time to date just the payment of several employees. What does one cost? 100.000$p.a.? so if we take only 30employees, within 5 years it is 15.000.000$. 

I expect that there will be an ingameshop in DualUniverse, not only because of the DAC mechanics, but also because of all the style items for the elements. Just buy a different color variant in the store for 5,-$ or another form of the standard element to make it look fancier...all the possibilities with the housing elements would be a goldmine. Whether it's pictures, stuffed animals, showers, chairs, tables, armchairs, beds lamps...you can create a lot of design directions in a short time to market them.

It could go even deeper in, buy permanently protected area xy in space with cords xyz in the middle of PvP area or on a PvP planet. 
Buy a space base, a ship, a spaceship... (StarCitizen clearly shows which financial possibilities are available).
Novaquark - The metaverse company

[SirJohn85]

36 minutes ago, Zarcata said:

The money is not much, after all, when you consider over the time to date just the payment of several employees. What does one cost? 100.000$p.a.? so if we take only 30employees, within 5 years it is 15.000.000$. 

 

The cost or what problems they have is not important to me as a player. In the end they stood up and said with a little over 600k euros and about 25 employees (at that time) we can meet the Kickstarter rewards as well as the game. It was even awarded things still like the bounty system because it did not reach the 650k. What they have for costs or how they organize themselves, I assume that this has already been calculated through, if I put money in someone's hand on a serious platform who always said he was a scientist and tried to prove what he did in the past. 

 

All the mechanics, like planetary mining, was thrown overboard for mining units because their technology doesn't work. Or Avatar vs Avatar, which was postponed after release with no time given. But well, the CEO at the time who wanted the money is now no longer in management. That makes things a bit more complicated to look at as a whole. 

 

In the end DU, Chronicles of Elyria and also Star Citizens made sure that mmorpgs via this platform now have to be enjoyed with caution after the year 2020. It's a pity, because I had good experiences with Kickstarter with games like for example Factorio, Elite Dangerous, FTL, Darkest Dungeon, Divinity: Original Sin or Pillars of Eternity.

 

So do I have to expect that I won't get it like that anymore ingame as an earnable item and will be asked to pay for it? Several outfits were presented in the past.

I have many questions NQ.

 

[blazemonger]

The character creation in DU is laughable, especially for an MMO.. 

It's of those "initial implementations" that was supposed to be worked out during alpha.

 

Slapping some color on a suit really equates to nothing. And on top of that I really liked the first iteration of the suit, with the cloth patches, far better than the skin tight suit with the weird helmet design we have now. That just looks terrible and it makes the game even more sterile and unpersonal than it already is.

 

I'm not asking for EVE level customisations here but what we have now is just not  adequate at all.

[blundertwink]

5 hours ago, blazemonger said:

The character creation in DU is laughable, especially for an MMO.. 

It's of those "initial implementations" that was supposed to be worked out during alpha.

 

Slapping some color on a suit really equates to nothing. And on top of that I really liked the first iteration of the suit, with the cloth patches, far better than the skin tight suit with the weird helmet design we have now. That just looks terrible and it makes the game even more sterile and unpersonal than it already is.

 

I'm not asking for EVE level customisations here but what we have now is just not  adequate at all.

 

Really impossible to not agree -- first impressions are formed very quickly by gamers and character creation is a huge deal to a lot of people. If you're going to invest time in an MMO, making a character "your own" is important. 

 

DU creates a series of bad first impressions that makes me believe release will go just as well as public beta. 

 

Lack of character customization alone might not be enough to make people quit, but then they get into the game itself (if it loads).

 

They see a UI that looks like it was improvised by coders (and probably was).
Bland visuals make the game feel dated.
Initial gameplay that involves going back and forth to a market, which might be a considerable hike depending on when they join. 

It doesn't take much for gamers to roll their eyes at the wasted $9.99 and realize that the game doesn't meet the expectations created in whatever advert got them to sign up.

 

DU doesn't communicate "quality" in the first 30 minutes. It still feels like it was made by a tiny team on a small budget -- that might not be a fair impression, but it is the impression that NQ has unwittingly engineered.

 

These aren't hard problems to solve, but when it takes 45 days per decision, of course nothing ever gets done 😏

[CptLoRes]

The only thing DU will ever kill, is hopes and dreams..

[blazemonger]

1 hour ago, blundertwink said:

DU doesn't communicate "quality" in the first 30 minutes.

 

In its current state, DU communicates a bland and uninspired image in the first 5 minutes and never recovers.

 

And that will be a big problem as it means it will cause many to disengage early on and quite outright or keep going with low expectations which are barely met down the line, if so.

 

I really want DU to do well, become good and maybe even great down the line. I do not feel NQ has that objective and is just trying to push a product out the door without much of a consideration for what it looks like, nor do they have a solid idea of where to take it after.

 

It's why, for quite some time now, I have said that while I can see what DU can be or become, I do not think NQ is the company to make that happen.